THE PROBLEM OF IRRIGATION WATER SHORTAGE AS A SYSTEMIC FACTOR LIMITING THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Abstract
Freshwater scarcity is one of the key global challenges for sustainable agricultural development in the context of climate change. The increase in average annual air temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, and the increased frequency of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena lead to an increase in the evapotranspiration needs of agricultural crops and, at the same time, a decrease in the reliability of water supply for irrigation. According to estimates by international organizations, more than 40 % of global agricultural production already operates under conditions of moderate or high water stress, and by the middle of the 21st century, this figure could rise to 60 %. Ukraine is one of the countries with limited water resources and high regional unevenness in their distribution. The main areas of irrigated land are concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions, where climate change is most intense, creating a persistent water shortage for agricultural production. In the context of military operations, an additional risk factor is the disruption of water management infrastructure and the increase in operating costs for water supply.
The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the shortage of fresh water for irrigation on a global scale in general and in Ukraine in particular, taking into account climatic, hydrological, agrotechnological, and economic factors. The work uses methods of climate and water management analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, taking into account potential yield losses and the assessment of irrigation investment efficiency. Particular attention is paid to modern approaches to optimizing water use, in particular phytomonitoring and adaptive irrigation management methods presented in the works of Romashchenko M.I., Shatkovskyi A.P. and co-authors, FAO and IPCC data.
The results confirm that even with the introduction of highly efficient irrigation technologies, the structural deficit of water resources remains a decisive constraint on the development of irrigated agriculture. The need to transition to integrated water resource management models that take into account climate scenarios, economic risks, and institutional constraints is justified.
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